USER ACTIVATION & subscription
USER ACTIVATION
& subscription
USER ACTIVATION & subscription
Logistic Regression + Survival Analysis | 45% Faster User Conversion
Logistic Regression + Survival Analysis | 45% Faster User Conversion
Analyzed 600K+ user events from a leading SaaS platform to uncover the behavioral levers that drive activation and subscription. This two-part project moves from predicting "if" a user converts to understanding "when" they take action .
// Part One: The Probability Baseline (Logistic Regression)
Engineered time-based features (meeting cadence, integration speed, engagement density)l to identify early subscription signals.
The model achieved AUC ~0.82 —with second meeting within 7 days (+0.54), integration within 14 days (+0.76), and high 30-day meeting volume (+0.93). Yet, first meeting within 7 days had a confusing weak signal (-0.17) .
Analyzed 600K+ user events from a leading SaaS platform to uncover the behavioral levers that drive activation and subscription. This two-part project moves from predicting "if" a user converts to understanding "when" they take action .
//Part One: The Probability Baseline (Logistic Regression)
Engineered time-based features (meeting cadence, integration speed, engagement density)l to identify early subscription signals.
The model achieved AUC ~0.82 —with second meeting within 7 days (+0.54),
integration within 14 days (+0.76), and high 30-day meeting volume (+0.93). Yet, first meeting within 7 days had a confusing weak signal (-0.17) .
// Part Two: The Velocity Deep-Dive (Survival Analysis)
Extended the study with survival modeling (Kaplan-Meier + Cox proportional hazards) to solvethe "First Meeting" paradox.
The "Aha!" moment : Slow-meeting users (7+ days) subscribed 14.08x faster than the baseline, while immediate "Fast-meeting" users converted only 9.69x faster—representing a 45% lift in subscription timing by prioritizing user-led exploration.
// Part Two: The Velocity Deep-Dive (Survival Analysis)
Extended the study with survival modeling (Kaplan-Meier + Cox proportional hazards) to solvethe "First Meeting" paradox.
The "Aha!" moment : Slow-meeting users (7+ days) subscribed 14.08x faster than the baseline, while immediate "Fast-meeting" users converted only 9.69x faster—representing a 45% lift in subscription timing by prioritizing user-led exploration.
//Part Two: The Velocity Deep-Dive (Survival Analysis)
Extended the study with survival modeling (Kaplan-Meier + Cox proportional hazards) to solvethe "First Meeting" paradox.
The "Aha!" moment : Slow-meeting users (7+ days) subscribed 14.08x faster than the baseline, while immediate "Fast-meeting" users converted only 9.69x faster—representing a 45% lift in subscription timing by prioritizing user-led exploration.
View in GitHub
View in GitHub
View in GitHub